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According to the United States Chemical Manufacturing Alliance (CMAI), global GDP growth in 2007 will be strong, and the global petrochemical industry will reach its peak value. At the same time, analysts believe that, given that some petrochemical projects in the Middle East, especially Iran, will continue to delay production, 2008 will be a turning point. The new capacity in the Middle East will be put into production from 2009 to 2010. The global petrochemical market is expected to show a downward trend until 2009, when global petrochemical installations will be relatively weak. In this process of transition, the petrochemical industries in different regions will also exhibit different characteristics. This is the latest news from the US Chemical Week.
The petrochemical industry is moving to Asia and the Middle East. Stephen Simon, senior vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation, said that in the next 10 years, 60% of the growth in petrochemical demand will be in Asia, and China alone will account for 1/3. By 2015, Asia will account for 50% of demand for key petrochemical products, while China will account for 25%. ExxonMobil has plans to build large-scale chemical projects in China and Qatar, as well as large-scale expansion of its Kemya and Yanpet ethylene and derivative joint ventures formed between Saudi Arabia and Sabic. In the next few years, ExxonMobil will expand its basic petrochemical capacity in Asia and the Middle East by 60% to 8 million tons per year.
Although China’s ethylene capacity will double within the next five years, according to CMAI, China’s rapidly growing demand will increase import demand to 18 million tons. By 2015, China is expected to reabsorb 5 million to 6 million tons of ethylene derivatives in the Middle East. Although the production of new devices will increase supply, demand growth will strongly absorb new capacity.
The Middle East still has opportunities for development because it can provide low-cost raw materials. Shell uses ethane/propane feedstock in North America, naphtha feedstock in Europe, and liquid feedstock in Singapore. The joint venture between Shell and Sabic's Saudi Petrochemicals subsidiary in Jubail has a steam cracker with an ethylene capacity of 1.2 million tons per year.
In North America, the ethylene and polypropylene markets remain strong and the market is in balance. Nova Chemicals of Canada believes that ethylene/polyethylene will develop strongly in 2007, 2008 and 2009 under moderate GDP growth. The petrochemical capabilities of the Middle East, especially Iran, cannot be put into operation quickly, which is beneficial to the development of North American producers. The operating rate of ethylene and polypropylene plant in North America increased due to the increase in demand. The operating rate in the first quarter of 2007 was approximately 95%, slightly higher than the 94% in the fourth quarter of the previous year. The operating rate of PE in the first quarter was as high as about 92%, compared with 85% in the same quarter of the previous year.
There are also opportunities for expansion in North America, particularly in Canada, and Alberta has plans to expand its ethane extraction capacity. Alberta’s petrochemical industry will probably double in size in the next 20 years. Nova Chemicals now has an ethylene capacity of 2.18 million tons per year in Alberta, and holds a major share of the province's total capacity of 3.9 million tons per year.
Despite the increase in the price of natural gas, the price of crude oil is still higher than the price of natural gas, so the United States is still competitive with other regions of the world. Analysts believe that in addition to the Middle East, the United States can still compete with the rest of the world. The US polyolefin and vinyl series market is still promising. As of late March 2007, crude oil was trading at US$60/barrel and natural gas at US$7/million BTU, with a ratio of 8.5. This ratio is 6 compared to the equivalent calorific value. Therefore, natural gas feedstock still has advantages.
The petrochemical industry is moving to Asia and the Middle East. Stephen Simon, senior vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation, said that in the next 10 years, 60% of the growth in petrochemical demand will be in Asia, and China alone will account for 1/3. By 2015, Asia will account for 50% of demand for key petrochemical products, while China will account for 25%. ExxonMobil has plans to build large-scale chemical projects in China and Qatar, as well as large-scale expansion of its Kemya and Yanpet ethylene and derivative joint ventures formed between Saudi Arabia and Sabic. In the next few years, ExxonMobil will expand its basic petrochemical capacity in Asia and the Middle East by 60% to 8 million tons per year.
Although China’s ethylene capacity will double within the next five years, according to CMAI, China’s rapidly growing demand will increase import demand to 18 million tons. By 2015, China is expected to reabsorb 5 million to 6 million tons of ethylene derivatives in the Middle East. Although the production of new devices will increase supply, demand growth will strongly absorb new capacity.
The Middle East still has opportunities for development because it can provide low-cost raw materials. Shell uses ethane/propane feedstock in North America, naphtha feedstock in Europe, and liquid feedstock in Singapore. The joint venture between Shell and Sabic's Saudi Petrochemicals subsidiary in Jubail has a steam cracker with an ethylene capacity of 1.2 million tons per year.
In North America, the ethylene and polypropylene markets remain strong and the market is in balance. Nova Chemicals of Canada believes that ethylene/polyethylene will develop strongly in 2007, 2008 and 2009 under moderate GDP growth. The petrochemical capabilities of the Middle East, especially Iran, cannot be put into operation quickly, which is beneficial to the development of North American producers. The operating rate of ethylene and polypropylene plant in North America increased due to the increase in demand. The operating rate in the first quarter of 2007 was approximately 95%, slightly higher than the 94% in the fourth quarter of the previous year. The operating rate of PE in the first quarter was as high as about 92%, compared with 85% in the same quarter of the previous year.
There are also opportunities for expansion in North America, particularly in Canada, and Alberta has plans to expand its ethane extraction capacity. Alberta’s petrochemical industry will probably double in size in the next 20 years. Nova Chemicals now has an ethylene capacity of 2.18 million tons per year in Alberta, and holds a major share of the province's total capacity of 3.9 million tons per year.
Despite the increase in the price of natural gas, the price of crude oil is still higher than the price of natural gas, so the United States is still competitive with other regions of the world. Analysts believe that in addition to the Middle East, the United States can still compete with the rest of the world. The US polyolefin and vinyl series market is still promising. As of late March 2007, crude oil was trading at US$60/barrel and natural gas at US$7/million BTU, with a ratio of 8.5. This ratio is 6 compared to the equivalent calorific value. Therefore, natural gas feedstock still has advantages.
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