"Do not blindly enter the power battery industry!"

"Do not blindly enter the power battery industry!"

Liu Yanlong, secretary general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, called on the "China (Qinghai) Lithium Industry and Power Battery International Summit Forum" held on June 27. The background of his appeal is that in 2017, the utilization rate of China's power battery capacity was low, the polarization was obvious, and the market elimination competition became increasingly fierce.

In the " Electric Vehicle Observer" last issue of the reader WeChat group selection topic, "power battery capacity utilization analysis" topic, received more than 40% of voting support. We took the opportunity to participate in the Qinghai Forum of the Electric Vehicles Centennial Conference and asked many entrepreneurs and experts about this issue. We hope to show readers the development status and future direction of the power battery industry.

Capacity utilization rate is 32%, far below the healthy development level of the industry

Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, quoted relevant data as saying that the capacity of China's power battery in 2017 has exceeded 200GWh, but the overall capacity utilization rate is only 40%.

Source: China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association " Lithium Battery Industry Development Report" (2018)

China Electric Vehicle Hundred, "Lithium Battery Industry Development Report" (2018) show that in 2017, battery capacity utilization of the top nine national enterprises, in addition to Ningde era of dominance, reaching 89.7%, only BYD and Fueneng Technology is higher than and close to 40%, and the capacity utilization rate of other companies are far below 40%.

The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association has a lower number of surveys. Liu Yanlong said that since 2016, the power lithium-ion battery industry has shown structural overcapacity. In 2017, the effective capacity is about 115Gwh, the total installed capacity of lithium-ion power batteries for new energy vehicles is 36.9Gwh, and the capacity utilization rate of power batteries is only 32%.

So, what is the utilization rate of power battery capacity to maintain the healthy development of the industry? Liu Yanlong told the "Electric Vehicle Observer" that more than 60% of the capacity utilization rate is normal and healthy. According to this standard, in 2017, in the Chinese power battery market, only the Ningde era reached a "healthy" level of development.

Accelerated knockouts, significant structural overcapacity

The low utilization rate of capacity is a prominent manifestation of the structural overcapacity of China's power battery industry. In Chen Qingtai’s words, “the domestic power battery market has a phenomenon of tight supply and overcapacity. The market polarization is very obvious, the supply of high-end high-quality capacity is insufficient, the low-end production capacity is insufficient, and production and operation are difficult.”

"China's power battery supporting enterprises have dropped from about 150 in 2015 to around 100 in 2017, and one-third of the companies have been eliminated." Chen Qingtai said, "The market will further concentrate on the dominant enterprises, small, Low-level power battery companies will be eliminated in the competition."

Source: China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association

According to the survey data of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, in 2016, the top 20 enterprises accounted for 83.1% of the installed capacity, and the top 5 enterprises accounted for 64.5% of the installed capacity. In 2017, the installed capacity of the top 20 enterprises was 32.09 billion watt-hours, accounting for 87%; the installed capacity of the top 5 enterprises was 22.343 billion watt-hours, accounting for 60.5%. In the first four months of 2018, the installed capacity of the top 20 enterprises was 7.941 billion watt-hours, accounting for 96.5%; the installed capacity of the top five enterprises accounted for 82.1%.

After 2018, the knockout of the power battery industry will accelerate. Liu Yanlong believes that with the deep adjustment of national policies, the concentration of the power battery industry will continue to increase. In 2018, first-line enterprises in the industry gradually eroded market share through technological advantages, while the low-end production capacity of second- and third-tier enterprises faced a crisis of being eliminated.

Luo Huanta, dean of the High-tech Industry Research Institute, also said, "In fact, the reshuffle of the power battery industry has started in 2017, but from 2018, the speed of the next three years (shuffle) will be faster. ."

Lack of technical reserves leads to overcapacity

The power battery capacity utilization rate is low. In just two years, one-third of the enterprises have been eliminated. Why? In Liu Yanlong's view, policy updates are faster than corporate adjustments, and companies blindly expand production capacity, which is the main reason for the continued decline in power battery capacity utilization.

In November 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Regulations for Automotive Power Battery Industry" (2017) (draft for comment), proposing that the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells enterprises should not be less than 8 billion watt-hours, but in the previous edition - - In the "Automobile Power Battery Industry Specification Conditions" released in March 2015, the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells is only 200 million watt-hours. In less than two years, capacity requirements have increased to 40 times.

The guidance of the policy, coupled with the high expectations of market demand, power battery companies have expanded their production capacity. In order to meet the capacity to meet the standard and excessive expansion, the result is that a large number of products have been rejected by car companies because they do not meet the national subsidy standards.

Liu Yanlong believes that the policy guides enterprises to switch to high specific energy, and lithium iron phosphate batteries cannot meet this standard. With such batteries as the main enterprises, the production capacity cannot be released. "(Improve the capacity utilization rate) is not solely based on production, but on whether you have any technical reserves. After the policy adjustment, can you come up with products that meet the market? The enterprises that were in the low-tech level in the early stage did not think that the policy adjustment was so fast (capacity utilization). The rate is down)," he said.

Strong and strong, big companies continue to exert strength

The power battery industry knockouts are getting more and more fierce, and there are a few happy ones.

Xiao Jianping, a partner of Chen Hao Capital, believes that the market's head effect concentration is obvious, and the rest of the (non-leading) companies are under great pressure from the market. "From the total number of supporting enterprises, from the highest 150, it has reached the current 73, which means that many enterprises will do some small power batteries at the peak, and may withdraw now. ”

He bluntly said, "After 2017, there is basically no investment opportunity for the battery."

Luo Huanta also said that the cake in the power battery market is very big, but it is very difficult to get this share. “From 2015 to 2017, many listed companies acquired battery companies and related supporting companies, but by 2018, many similar acquisitions were terminated. At the same time, many newcomers are now on hold,” he said.

On the other hand, the situation of the strong and strong has been formed. The top battery manufacturers continue to overweight their battery business.

BYD Qinghai Power Battery Factory Launch Ceremony

On June 27th, the 10GWh power battery production project of the first phase of BYD Qinghai Nanchuan Battery Factory was officially put into production. After the project was put into production in 2019, the annual production capacity could reach 24GWh. The factory is the third power battery base of BYD in China after the base of Shenzhen and Huizhou. The annual production capacity of Shenzhen Base and Huizhou Base are 14GWh and 2GWh respectively.

Huang Shilin, vice chairman of the Ningde era, introduced that from 2013 to 2017, the overall planned production capacity of the Ningde era reached 228GWh, and only 37GWh was used in 2017. “We are now very nervous in production and the demand is getting bigger and bigger,” he said. However, he did not disclose the future capacity planning of the Ningde era.

In addition to BYD and Ningde era, which have taken turns in the position of champions in recent years, the pace of expansion of other mainstream battery manufacturers is also accelerating. Wang Wei, chairman of Fueng Technology (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd., said that in the next three years, “Fuergy will invest about 12 billion yuan for domestic expansion, and lay out three bases in South China, East China and North China. The production capacity will reach 35GWh. The layout will start soon."

Song Han, Marketing Director of Micro-Power System (Huzhou) Co., Ltd., which promotes fast-charged power batteries, told Electric Vehicle Observer. In 2017, Weihong Power's shipments were about 0.55GWh, and the capacity utilization rate exceeded 50%. He said that by the end of this year, the production capacity will reach 4GWh.

Liu Zhengyao, deputy general manager of CITIC Guoan Mengli Power Technology Co., Ltd., is also very optimistic about the market for power batteries. “Last year, Mengguli sold nearly 1.6 billion yuan, but the production capacity is only 0.5GWh, so the capacity utilization rate is 100%. Our demand is very strong, but the capacity is insufficient. In the next two to three years, we will increase it to More than a dozen G-watt hours, this year's effective capacity will reach 3GWh," he said.

Japan, South Korea, the United States, Europe will join the market battle

Domestic power battery companies have stepped up their efforts and vowed to take advantage of home courts. International companies are also eyeing China's huge power battery market.

Chen Qingtai introduced that in 2017, China's automotive power battery shipments reached 38GWh, accounting for 65.4% of global automotive power battery shipments. It is expected that next step, with the development of new energy vehicles and energy storage market, lithium batteries The scale will be further expanded.

He believes that China will become the main battlefield for power battery competition. On the one hand, Japanese and Korean companies will further exert their efforts in the Chinese market; on the other hand, although European and American companies have lost their position in this round of competition, they are already doing the next. A stage of competition to do layout is a potential strong competitor.

In the face of the rapid development of China's power battery market, SK is accelerating the investment and construction of a factory in China, and is setting up a technical research institute to promote material research and prepare to promote price advantage to the Chinese market. Battery products. In 2025, SK's annual global power battery capacity will reach 60GWh or more.

In Luo Huanta’s view, foreign-funded enterprises have already targeted the period after the full marketization of (power battery) in 2020, “so they focus on the new energy vehicle market after 2020, and they have already had a lot with our OEMs. The joint development of the models."

Improving the technical level is the key

Under the dual challenges of subsidies and foreign investment, how can power battery companies improve capacity utilization and strengthen competitiveness? Improving the level of technology and product quality is key.

Liu Yanlong believes that the advancement of lithium-ion battery technology is mainly due to the research and application progress of key battery materials innovation, and further improve battery performance, improve quality, reduce cost and improve safety through the development of new materials. In order to meet the requirements of the downstream application for increasing the energy density of the battery, on the one hand, a material with a high specific capacity is used, and on the other hand, a charging voltage is applied, and a high voltage material is used.

Since 2017, China's power battery technology has improved rapidly. Chen Qingtai pointed out that some domestic power battery indicators have reached the international advanced level. For example, the energy density of power battery cells exceeds 240 watt-hours/kg.

Huang Shilin introduction, "in terms of lithium iron phosphate batteries, 2018, the era of Ningde to do 160 W / kg, while in 2020 is expected to be more than 180 W / kg. Ternary battery, this year, Ningde era of mass production of battery To achieve 240 watt-hours/kg, the mass energy density of the mass produced in 2020 is above 270 watt-hours/kg."

Liu Zhengyao also said that at present, the power capacity of the power battery unit supplied by Mengfuli is 240 watt-hours/kg. "We (the level of the Union) and the Ningde era are comparable."

In addition, the product roadmap of the company can show that this year, the capacity density of most of the products of the company can reach 210 watt-hours/kg-260 watt-hours/kg, and it will reach 270 watt-hours from 2019 to 2020. Kilograms - 300 watt hours / kilogram, from 2021 to 2022 is expected to reach 310 watt hours / kg - 330 watt hours / kg.

However, for the “Regulations on Investment Management of the Automobile Industry (Draft for Comment)”, the products to be produced by the new power battery project must meet the energy density requirements of the monomer and system, respectively, not less than 300 Wh/kg and 220 Wh/kg. The requirements (refer to "Automobile Investment New Deal: Newly-built car companies to the side, let the new power battery companies cry for a while" ), many experts and enterprises believe that there is a "destructive encouragement".

Technical Requirements for New Power Battery Projects in the "Regulations on Investment Management of the Automobile Industry (Draft for Comment)"

A power battery manufacturer told Electric Vehicle Observer, "Now, 300 watt-hour / kg of products can be made in the laboratory, but the energy production products have not been heard. First, product development needs The verification cycle, otherwise there will be security risks; second, in the short term, this new deal (the industry investment management regulations mentioned above) may be a little off guard for a large number of companies."

Another expert also said, “I emphasize that high specific energy hides a lot of security risks. In order to survive, companies will take out 300 watt-hours/kg of products in order to get more orders, but this kind of battery has not entered the market. In two years, there is no way to obtain technical reserves. Although the performance can achieve 300 watt-hours/kg, there is no data support for cycle life and reliability. There is a great risk. I think this subsidy policy is too fast to pull energy density, which is a bit too fast. It is."

Luo Huanta said that under the influence of the country's financial de-leverage and other factors, the capital winter of the power battery industry has arrived, and the data (the number of enterprises that have been eliminated) is also bloody. The big cake in China's power battery market is not something that can be moved. (Finish)

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