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The current predicament of overproduction of gasoline engines is believed to be the first to ease in Europe in the near future. In the next decade, mankind will return to the era of producing two diesel engines at the same time.
The pace of development will gradually slow down
High-pressure fuel injection technology has greatly improved the performance of diesel engines and ultimately promoted the widespread use of today's increasingly popular diesel technology. In 1998, the European new car sales market with diesel engines was 24.8%. Since the invention of the common rail diesel injection system, the sales of diesel cars have climbed to 48.3% last year and are expected to occupy half of the market this year.
But this good situation also hides the crisis. Analysts believe that although European regulations have promoted the development of diesel engines, this step will gradually begin to slow down. By 2010, diesel-powered cars will account for more than 65% of the European new car market, but will gradually decline to below 40% after 2015.
Rinaldo Rinalfi, director of the engine division of the Fiat Research Center, known as the father of the common rail diesel injection system, even predicted that in order to meet increasingly stringent emission regulations, automakers will give up their preference for diesel engines, which will directly affect the choice of end users. Those who hold the same view also include other related professionals at General Motors.
Technical costs hinder progress
In order to meet the EU Euro V emission directives that are expected to be enforced in 2010, especially for the reduction of the limits of nitrogen oxides, the future improvement of diesel engines requires more expensive equipment. It is estimated that the NOx content specified by the Euro V Directive will be reduced by half compared to the present, below 0.25 grams per kilometer.
Analysts say that increasingly stringent emissions regulations will continue to increase the cost of diesel engines. According to calculations, in order to achieve the same performance, the manufacturing cost of the diesel engine will be 1.5 times that of the gasoline engine. By 2010, in order to improve engine performance to meet the Euro V directive, future diesel engines need to add a particulate filter, which costs up to 500 Euros. According to the forecast of the automotive industry, if the EU issued the Euro VI directive in 2015, there is reason to believe that the automakers have to invest an additional 200 to 300 euros for this, so that the cost of the diesel engine is twice that of the gasoline engine. This is why Rinolfi believes that the diesel engine market will shrink below 40% after 2015.
Although some opponents stressed that it should not be overlooked that technological innovation will bring about a reduction in the cost of diesel engine improvements. But the president of GM Europe warned that diesel engine development costs will increase dramatically in the future. In order to meet EU regulations, diesel cars will have to invest an additional 1200 to 2400 euros. GM has speculated that the market demand for gasoline engines will rebound after the 2010 European V Directive.
Turbocharged may make the gasoline engine warm
Fiat's engine expert Rinolfi reminds automakers that the market for diesel and gasoline engines will waver in the next decade. At present, with the overproduction of gasoline engines, automakers are expanding their production capacity to meet the market demand for diesel engines. In addition, experts believe that improving gasoline engine technology and increasing the carbon content per liter can ultimately offset the low carbon dioxide emissions of diesel engines.
Experts say that gasoline engines with turbocharged or multi-valve timing systems can improve fuel economy and achieve high power for small displacement engines. Based on an optimistic estimate of the future demand for gasoline engines, automakers are now embarking on the development of gasoline turbochargers. GM has long said that they are willing to invest more money and manpower in developing gasoline engines to make them more competitive.
Since almost all diesel cars use turbocharging technology, BorgWarner and Honeywell, which are turbine suppliers, have benefited, and they are also preparing to invest in the new round of gasoline engine boom. According to Honeywell's forecast, gasoline engines using turbine technology will triple by 2010, from the current 10% to 22%.
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