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Since the start of the fourth quarter, the oil and chemical industries have experienced rapid capacity expansion, which has led to a weakening of downstream demand's ability to cope with high prices. As a result, overall demand has slowed down, and prices for many products have been declining, causing market conditions to remain volatile.
According to the latest data bulletin from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, in November, 64 types of petroleum and chemical products were monitored, and 57 of them saw production increases compared to the same period last year, representing 89.1% of the total. Among these, 39% recorded an increase of over 10%, accounting for 60.9%. Meanwhile, seven products saw a decline in output, making up 10.9%.
Looking at 144 tracked products, 50 saw price increases from the previous month (34.7%), while 83 experienced price drops (57.6%). Compared to the same period last year, 67 products saw price increases (46.5%), while 57 faced declines (39.6%).
The national oil and chemical sector in November showed two key characteristics: strong production growth and continued price declines. Crude oil output rose slightly to 14.84 million tons, a 2.4% increase year-on-year. Natural gas production surged to 4.75 billion cubic meters, marking a 35.4% annual increase—this was the highest single-month rise this year.
Production of the "two alkalis" also grew steadily due to new capacity coming online. Caustic soda output reached 1.092 million tons, up 20.5% year-on-year. Organic chemical products, especially ethylene and methanol, saw significant growth. Ethylene output hit 682,000 tons, a 21.8% increase, while methanol production reached 466,000 tons, up 24.3% compared to the same period last year.
Despite high energy and raw material costs, product prices continued to fluctuate sharply. The rapid expansion of capacity, combined with slower downstream demand growth and fierce market competition, has driven prices downward. Many products saw declines compared to both the previous month and the same period last year, reflecting a clear downward trend in the market.
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