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In the first half of the year, “downwards stabilized and slightly rebounded,†and the trend for the whole year “has progressed steadily and steadily.†At the analysis meeting of the mechanical industry operation held recently by the China Machinery Industry Federation Committee of Experts, Cai Weici, a special advisor of the China Machinery Industry Federation, summarized and predicted the operating characteristics of the machinery industry in the first half of the year and the whole year.
Cai Weici said that from the perspective of the industry's operation, the differentiation between industries and within the industry in the first half of the year was even more pronounced. In contrast, private enterprises performed relatively well. Judging the trend throughout the year, he believes that the bottom of the L-shape is basically visible and that the industry will continue to consolidate. Although it is too early for the prediction to rebound, it is at least stabilized.
Cai Weici reminded the industry to focus on three risk factors. First, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets of the entire society, all manufacturing industries, and the machinery industry has been greatly reduced. Second, although the data for the first four months showed that the decline in exports of the machinery industry has narrowed from month to month, it is still difficult to say whether or not it can turn negative. Third, the industry differentiation continues to intensify. In the first half of the year, automobiles and electricians exerted tremendous influence on industry growth, and the industry’s dependence was too high.
Overall operation stabilizing Main indicators better than last year
Since the beginning of this year, the economic operation of the machinery industry has continued the trend of stabilization in the fourth quarter of last year. From January to May, the growth rate of the value added of the machinery industry re-entered from the previous year's industrial growth rate and exceeded the national average industrial growth rate. The relevant person in charge of the China Machine Link stated that at present, due to the completion of the tasks of de-capacity, de-stocking, and deleveraging in the relevant industries, the impact on the machinery industry is relatively large, the industry demand is weak, and the differentiation is intensified, and the steady state trend needs to be firm.
According to the data from the previous May, the major economic indicators of the machinery industry in the first half of this year were better than those of the national industry and were better than the level of the same period of last year. Among them, the cumulative increase in industrial added value nationwide was 5.9%, the manufacturing industry grew by 6.7%, the growth rate of the machinery industry was 7.6%, the growth rate of the machinery industry was 1.7 and 0.9% higher than that of the industrial and manufacturing industries during the same period, and it was higher than that of the previous year's machinery industry. 2.1 percentage points over the same period. From the main business income, from January to April, the main business income of the machinery industry was 7,164.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, which was 3.35 percentage points higher than that of the national industry over the same period. The total profit of the machinery industry was 464.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, which was slightly lower than the national industry of 0.16 percentage points over the same period. Among the 119 key products monitored by the machinery industry, 61 products were increased in the first five months of the year, accounting for 51.26%, and 58 products were decreased year-on-year, accounting for 48.74%. Products with double-digit growth were only There are 16 kinds.
Increased differentiation, excellent performance in the electrical and automotive industry
Cai Weichai said that in the first half of the year, the industry has stabilized and the decline has narrowed. Among them, automobiles and electricians have contributed the most to the industry. Its contribution to main business revenue growth reached 80%. The profit growth of the machinery industry is too dependent on the automotive and electrical appliance industries.
From the data, from January to April, the total profit of the machinery industry was 464.328 billion yuan, an increase of 6.36% year-on-year, which was higher than the average level of the machinery industry in the same period of last year. Among them, the automotive industry realized a total profit of 204.472 billion yuan, an increase of 7.38%, a new profit of 14.061 billion yuan, accounting for 50.68% of the newly added profits of the machinery industry over the same period, and driving the growth of the machinery industry profits by 3.22 percentage points. The electrical and electronics industry achieved a profit of 92.386 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, a new profit of 13.022 billion yuan, accounting for 46.93% of the newly added profits of the machinery industry, and a 2.98 percentage point increase in the profits of the machinery industry. The total added profit of the automotive and electrical appliance industries totaled 27.083 billion yuan, accounting for 97.61% of the newly added profit of the machinery industry of 27.774 billion yuan.
What needs attention is that, as economic development enters the medium-to-low-growth growth channel, the increase in investment in fixed assets has declined, and the shortage of orders for the machinery industry remains serious. Statistics show that this year, the accumulated orders of key linking companies in the machinery industry have got rid of the year-on-year decline, with a year-on-year growth of 4.43% in the first three months and a 13.67 percentage point year-on-year increase. Cumulative orders from January to April increased by 3.65% year-on-year, down by 0.78 percentage points from January to March, and the ordering situation was not stable. Although the problem of insufficient orders for enterprises has improved, but compared with the year with the highest output, the problem of insufficient capacity utilization is still prominent.
Cai Weici said that due to the close relationship between the development of the machinery industry and the investment in fixed assets, the increase in the investment in fixed assets of the entire society, all manufacturing industries, and the machinery industry needs to attract the attention of the industry.
National Bureau of Statistics announced that the total social investment in fixed assets rose by 9.6% year-on-year from January to May, machinery industry investment increased by 6.31%, machinery industry was lower than the growth of social investment by 3.29 percentage points, but higher than the manufacturing industry by 1.71 percentage points.
Among the 13 major industries in the machinery industry, the electrical and electronic products industry increased by 11.98% year-on-year, automobile growth by 12.42%, mechanical basic parts by 10.81%, cultural office equipment by 23.39%, food packaging machinery by 14.58%, and construction machinery industry by 8.41%. The growth rate is higher than the industry average. The four industries of agricultural machinery, internal combustion engines, heavy machinery, and machine tools decreased year-on-year. The three industries of instrumentation, general petrochemical, and other civilian machinery increased slightly by 1%.
At the same time, imports and exports of the machinery industry are still not optimistic. In the first four months of this year, the total import, export, and export of the machinery industry accounted for about 18% of the country's total. From January to April, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry was US$19.897 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.95%, of which imports were US$81.812 billion, down 10.6% year-on-year, and exports were US$116.685 billion, down 7.75% year-on-year.
In this regard, Cai Weici said that the export decline narrowed month by month, but it is still difficult to say whether it can be turned negative. Moreover, the contribution of exports to the growth of the industry is relatively small, so it cannot send more hope to export growth.
In terms of overall performance in the first half of the year, China National Machine Federation believes that the overall operating index is better than that of the national industry and industry in the same period last year, but the output of major products has dropped by nearly half year-on-year. The difference in industry profit growth is significant. Investment growth is at a low level, and foreign trade exports are still not optimistic. Excessive industrial structure, weak capacity for independent innovation, extensive production methods, lack of product quality brands, and low level of integration between the two industries have not yet been effectively alleviated. The task of upgrading the quality and efficiency of the industry remains arduous.
Cai Weici said that from the perspective of the industry's operation, the differentiation between industries and within the industry in the first half of the year was even more pronounced. In contrast, private enterprises performed relatively well. Judging the trend throughout the year, he believes that the bottom of the L-shape is basically visible and that the industry will continue to consolidate. Although it is too early for the prediction to rebound, it is at least stabilized.
Cai Weici reminded the industry to focus on three risk factors. First, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets of the entire society, all manufacturing industries, and the machinery industry has been greatly reduced. Second, although the data for the first four months showed that the decline in exports of the machinery industry has narrowed from month to month, it is still difficult to say whether or not it can turn negative. Third, the industry differentiation continues to intensify. In the first half of the year, automobiles and electricians exerted tremendous influence on industry growth, and the industry’s dependence was too high.
Overall operation stabilizing Main indicators better than last year
Since the beginning of this year, the economic operation of the machinery industry has continued the trend of stabilization in the fourth quarter of last year. From January to May, the growth rate of the value added of the machinery industry re-entered from the previous year's industrial growth rate and exceeded the national average industrial growth rate. The relevant person in charge of the China Machine Link stated that at present, due to the completion of the tasks of de-capacity, de-stocking, and deleveraging in the relevant industries, the impact on the machinery industry is relatively large, the industry demand is weak, and the differentiation is intensified, and the steady state trend needs to be firm.
According to the data from the previous May, the major economic indicators of the machinery industry in the first half of this year were better than those of the national industry and were better than the level of the same period of last year. Among them, the cumulative increase in industrial added value nationwide was 5.9%, the manufacturing industry grew by 6.7%, the growth rate of the machinery industry was 7.6%, the growth rate of the machinery industry was 1.7 and 0.9% higher than that of the industrial and manufacturing industries during the same period, and it was higher than that of the previous year's machinery industry. 2.1 percentage points over the same period. From the main business income, from January to April, the main business income of the machinery industry was 7,164.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, which was 3.35 percentage points higher than that of the national industry over the same period. The total profit of the machinery industry was 464.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, which was slightly lower than the national industry of 0.16 percentage points over the same period. Among the 119 key products monitored by the machinery industry, 61 products were increased in the first five months of the year, accounting for 51.26%, and 58 products were decreased year-on-year, accounting for 48.74%. Products with double-digit growth were only There are 16 kinds.
Increased differentiation, excellent performance in the electrical and automotive industry
Cai Weichai said that in the first half of the year, the industry has stabilized and the decline has narrowed. Among them, automobiles and electricians have contributed the most to the industry. Its contribution to main business revenue growth reached 80%. The profit growth of the machinery industry is too dependent on the automotive and electrical appliance industries.
From the data, from January to April, the total profit of the machinery industry was 464.328 billion yuan, an increase of 6.36% year-on-year, which was higher than the average level of the machinery industry in the same period of last year. Among them, the automotive industry realized a total profit of 204.472 billion yuan, an increase of 7.38%, a new profit of 14.061 billion yuan, accounting for 50.68% of the newly added profits of the machinery industry over the same period, and driving the growth of the machinery industry profits by 3.22 percentage points. The electrical and electronics industry achieved a profit of 92.386 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, a new profit of 13.022 billion yuan, accounting for 46.93% of the newly added profits of the machinery industry, and a 2.98 percentage point increase in the profits of the machinery industry. The total added profit of the automotive and electrical appliance industries totaled 27.083 billion yuan, accounting for 97.61% of the newly added profit of the machinery industry of 27.774 billion yuan.
What needs attention is that, as economic development enters the medium-to-low-growth growth channel, the increase in investment in fixed assets has declined, and the shortage of orders for the machinery industry remains serious. Statistics show that this year, the accumulated orders of key linking companies in the machinery industry have got rid of the year-on-year decline, with a year-on-year growth of 4.43% in the first three months and a 13.67 percentage point year-on-year increase. Cumulative orders from January to April increased by 3.65% year-on-year, down by 0.78 percentage points from January to March, and the ordering situation was not stable. Although the problem of insufficient orders for enterprises has improved, but compared with the year with the highest output, the problem of insufficient capacity utilization is still prominent.
Cai Weici said that due to the close relationship between the development of the machinery industry and the investment in fixed assets, the increase in the investment in fixed assets of the entire society, all manufacturing industries, and the machinery industry needs to attract the attention of the industry.
National Bureau of Statistics announced that the total social investment in fixed assets rose by 9.6% year-on-year from January to May, machinery industry investment increased by 6.31%, machinery industry was lower than the growth of social investment by 3.29 percentage points, but higher than the manufacturing industry by 1.71 percentage points.
Among the 13 major industries in the machinery industry, the electrical and electronic products industry increased by 11.98% year-on-year, automobile growth by 12.42%, mechanical basic parts by 10.81%, cultural office equipment by 23.39%, food packaging machinery by 14.58%, and construction machinery industry by 8.41%. The growth rate is higher than the industry average. The four industries of agricultural machinery, internal combustion engines, heavy machinery, and machine tools decreased year-on-year. The three industries of instrumentation, general petrochemical, and other civilian machinery increased slightly by 1%.
At the same time, imports and exports of the machinery industry are still not optimistic. In the first four months of this year, the total import, export, and export of the machinery industry accounted for about 18% of the country's total. From January to April, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry was US$19.897 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.95%, of which imports were US$81.812 billion, down 10.6% year-on-year, and exports were US$116.685 billion, down 7.75% year-on-year.
In this regard, Cai Weici said that the export decline narrowed month by month, but it is still difficult to say whether it can be turned negative. Moreover, the contribution of exports to the growth of the industry is relatively small, so it cannot send more hope to export growth.
In terms of overall performance in the first half of the year, China National Machine Federation believes that the overall operating index is better than that of the national industry and industry in the same period last year, but the output of major products has dropped by nearly half year-on-year. The difference in industry profit growth is significant. Investment growth is at a low level, and foreign trade exports are still not optimistic. Excessive industrial structure, weak capacity for independent innovation, extensive production methods, lack of product quality brands, and low level of integration between the two industries have not yet been effectively alleviated. The task of upgrading the quality and efficiency of the industry remains arduous.
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