Oil urea constrains the country's four "landing"

Following the repeated delays in the implementation of the National Diesel Fuel Standards, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions, from January 1, 2015, the three diesel vehicles will not be sold. According to industry insiders, the upgrading of the National IV standard will enable the medium and light truck sector to enter a new industry adjustment period. Although major car companies have no problems with regard to technical reserves and product development, relevant functional departments and industry participants are still needed. Production and sales, matching, and law enforcement are in line with each other in order to ensure a smooth transition in the upgrading of the state-owned diesel and achieve the intended purpose of reducing diesel exhaust pollution by reducing the emissions of diesel fuel.

The full implementation of diesel upgrade led to the "shuffle" of the light truck market

China has become the world's largest producer and seller of motor vehicles for many years. Vehicle pollution has become an important source of air pollution in China. The emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulates from diesel vehicles in the country are about 70% and 80% of the total vehicle emissions. It has become a “large emitter” that tackles major problems in air pollution.

According to the “12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Saving and Emission Reduction” and the “Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan,” the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had previously issued an announcement clarifying that on December 31, 2014 the repeal of diesel vehicle products that applied to the National III emission standards was abolished. On the 1st of January, the diesel products of the Kokusan Group will not be sold, which indicates that the diesel standard upgrades that have caused repeated delays due to factors such as non-compliance of oil products and “manufacturing” by car companies have been fully rolled out.

According to industry insiders, the quality of oil products is an important factor affecting vehicle exhaust emissions. The sulfur content of the national standard vehicle diesel will be reduced from 350 milligrams per kilogram of the national standard to 50 milligrams per kilogram. The use of national diesel can significantly reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter from diesel vehicle exhaust. Before the sales of diesel vehicles that are lower than the national standard, it will take some time to eliminate the digestion. Therefore, the sales trend of the state-four diesel vehicles will become an important manifestation of the smooth transition of the diesel upgrade.

Every diesel oil standard adjustment, diesel commercial vehicle market share will appear "shuffle" situation. CAAM statistics show that the sales of trucks in 2014 were 3.18 million, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%, of which light trucks were the most affected by the increase in costs due to the Fourth National Emission Standard and the lack of manufacturers’ production preparation. Sales volume was only 1.66 million units, which was lower than 2013. The number of 1.9 million vehicles in the year was reduced by 240,000, and the annual decline rate was 12.9%.

Industry analysts pointed out that due to the dual impact of economic downturn and the implementation of the National IV standard, the overall market for trucks is low. As the national diesel heavy truck manufacturers using the same technical route, coupled with the price increase after the upgrade is not high, less affected, "the light truck price range of 10 million, the user price increase caused by the national upgrade is more Sensitive, so the sharp decline in production and sales is also reasonable."

“In the past, it was a dual-line production. Nowadays, the production of single-line vehicles has also been suspended.” Zhang Xiaofan, general manager of sales of Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd., one of the “three best in light trucks” in China, said that the cost of upgrading trucks will be affected by the implementation of the national diesel standard. With an increase of about RMB 20,000, the light truck industry has entered a difficult adjustment period, and both production capacity and sales volume have been severely declining. Dongfeng Co., Ltd. produced 20% less production than last year in 2013. “According to Beijing, Guangzhou, etc., which took the lead in implementing the four regional standards for diesel fuel, this adjustment period may last two to three years.”

At the same time, the phenomenon of “Country Three” or even “Country Two” counterfeiting the “National IV” truck phenomenon that has appeared in many places since 2014 is tantamount to a “worse” for truck manufacturers that are in the process of reshuffle of the industry market. To this end, China Automobile Association organized eight truck manufacturers, including FAW, Dongfeng, and Futian, to jointly publish the “industry self-discipline commitment on the implementation of the fourth emission standard for heavy-duty diesel vehicles”. The 14 companies that accounted for about 70% of the light truck market share signed an industry self-discipline commitment letter in late June 2014 and promised to no longer sell non-compliant vehicles.

After the “Diesel IV” implementation boots landed, the light-card market was generally “precautionary”, and some manufacturers who had earlier upgraded their products had ushered in “dawn”. The Jiangling light truck that was the first to upgrade the Guodian diesel engine in the industry, in this round of sluggish market, due to its more comprehensive model of the country’s four cars, no more price increase or only a few thousand yuan compared to the country’s three diesel vehicles, plus the “Zhen Guo 4” The market strategy has caused its sales volume and market share to rise against the trend.

Technical product upgrades ready to place oil urea-restricted countries four "landing"

According to industry sources, China's current state-of-the-art technology for upgrading diesel vehicles is mainly divided into “high pressure common rail + SCR” and “high pressure common rail + EGR”. The purpose of both technology upgrades is to reduce the emission of nitrogen oxides in vehicle exhaust gas. . The biggest difference is that the former requires the use of urea as a catalyst, which is mainly used for vehicles of 4 tons or more; the latter is not required for urea, and is mainly used for vehicles of 4 tons or less.

At present, Dongfeng, Futian, Jianghuai and other commercial vehicle companies have completed the research and development of the corresponding upgraded vehicle models, and are gradually introduced to the market. However, due to factors such as the need for imports of engine core components such as "high pressure common rail fuel injection", the rising cost of diesel vehicle upgrade models is still difficult to digest in the short term.

Many car owners and truck owners stated that the current scope and scope of urea for diesel and heavy trucks in the country are limited, making the implementation of the National IV standard inevitable as a "protracted war." In the first half of last year, Wuhan cargo owner Wang Zhonghua spent more than 300,000 yuan to purchase a Futian Auman four-card. After it was put into operation, he found that it was difficult to encounter a gas station that could add Canada's four diesels around Wuhan. "Fortune," "National IV's car burns the country's three oils, and the engine nozzles are very easy to plug up. If you change one, you have to spend a thousand pieces, and this country's four cars have been mad."

According to a previous CAAC survey of 672 gas stations in two municipalities in 18 provinces across the country, as of April 2014, only 2% of gas stations supply small packages and drum products, and no one gas station provides special services. Note urea equipment, large-scale auto parts market, barreled urea supply rate is only 58%; "fourth" vehicle diesel supply rate of only 9.7%. The reporter learned from the interview that despite the fact that the current state-of-the-art diesel sales situation has been relatively improved, it is still difficult to solve the automotive urea problem within a short period of time.

A person in charge of a domestic car company stated that with the full implementation of the four diesel standards, PetroChina and Sinopec are also accelerating the replacement of oil products, but the coverage is still relatively limited, especially in urban and rural areas and remote areas, it is certainly difficult to guarantee in the short term Can supply sufficient quantity of national diesel oil. In addition to the slight increase in diesel prices caused by the upgrading of oil products, it is still difficult to find a suitable channel for the urea “equipment model” for vehicles.

The responsible person said that it was estimated that a truck carrying heavy goods would consume 600 yuan of urea between Beijing and Shanghai. The owner could use technical means to lift the on-board computer's control of urea use, without adding urea or treating the tail gas. Normally, the industry has proposed a solution that “freely supplies the cost of car urea after it is shared with oil prices.” However, it is opposed after universal opposition. “The guarantee of oil upgrading is the basis, and the rational supply and supervision of urea is the decisive factor. After the implementation of the four standards, the decisive factors for concrete results."

The transition to the national four upgrade must ensure three consistent

Zhang Xiaofan and others in the industry pointed out that in light of the gains and losses of the upgrade of the country's second-country-to-country-three standards and the overall development of the truck business in China, the four-standard upgrade of the diesel country is undergoing a smooth transition and strict implementation, which needs to be achieved in terms of production, sales, support, and enforcement. Consistent:

Production and marketing. All car companies have signed the industry self-discipline letter of commitment, the mainstream car companies currently achieve national production of the country's three stop production, the country's four requirements are not a problem. Whether the inventory of local distributors can be digested in a timely manner, coupled with low-speed trucks, agricultural diesel vehicles, and other areas in the light truck industry, the country’s third-standard or even lower-standard truck products still have relatively large market demand because of their low prices. There are also many doubts about the fact that the entire country has also been implemented. The relevant departments are required to supervise the local diesel vehicle manufacturers to maintain consistency in the production and sales links of the National IV upgrade on the basis of the corresponding upgrade of the scope standards and timetable.

Supporting links. In addition to diesel fuel oil, vehicle urea two major "card neck" link needs to be implemented as soon as possible, the four diesel upgrade, due to oil quality problems caused by vehicle quality damage, the quality inspection department should be how to clarify and unify the division of responsibilities; After the official implementation of State IV, whether the country and local governments need to issue guidance subsidies policies to reduce the enthusiasm of vehicle owners to bear costs, they also need relevant functional departments and industries to start research preparation as soon as possible to ensure the consistency and continuity of relevant supporting measures. Sex.

Law enforcement. The relevant functional departments such as the industrial letter, quality inspection, environmental protection, and 3C certification related to the diesel upgrading of the State IV shall follow the same rules and regulations in a coordinated manner, and shall coordinate with the challenges in the upgrading process of the National IV diesel; and treat companies and users that disrupt the industrial order. How to clearly define uniform law enforcement standards and prevent selective law enforcement and selective subsidies under various local protectionism.

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