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Since the start of the fourth quarter, the oil and chemical industries have expanded their production capacity at a rapid pace, leading to an oversupply in downstream markets that were previously able to sustain high prices. As a result, demand has slowed down, and many product prices have been declining, causing market conditions to become increasingly volatile.
According to the latest data bulletin from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, in November, 64 types of petroleum and chemical products were tracked, with 57 of them showing year-on-year growth—accounting for 89.1% of the total. Among these, 39 products saw increases of over 10%, representing 60.9% of the tracked items. On the other hand, seven products experienced a decline, making up 10.9% of the total. Looking at 144 tracked products, 50 saw price increases compared to the previous month (34.7%), while 83 faced declines (57.6%). When compared to the same period last year, 67 products saw price increases (46.5%), while 57 experienced drops (39.6%).
The national oil and chemical production and pricing trends in November showed two main characteristics: strong production growth and declining prices. Crude oil output in November increased slightly to 14.84 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year. Natural gas production surged to 4.75 billion cubic meters, a 35.4% increase, marking the highest monthly growth so far this year. The production of "two alkalis"—caustic soda and other key chemicals—continued to rise due to new capacity coming online. Caustic soda output reached 1.092 million tons, up 20.5% year-on-year. Organic chemical production also grew rapidly, especially ethylene and methanol. Ethylene output rose to 682,000 tons, a 21.8% increase, while methanol production reached 466,000 tons, up 24.3% year-on-year.
Despite rising energy and raw material costs, the rapid expansion of production capacity, slowing downstream demand, and intense market competition led to significant price declines. Prices fluctuated heavily throughout the month, with many products falling sharply compared to both the previous month and the same period last year. This downward trend is expected to continue as supply outpaces demand in the sector.
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