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The global rubber industry has undergone significant transformations, marked by mergers, bankruptcies, and restructuring in recent years. These developments have reshaped the traditional dominance of the U.S., Japan, and Europe, commonly referred to as the "tripolar" pattern. With China's accession to the WTO and a sharp rise in rubber consumption, the industry is now witnessing a new era, where China, Japan, and Europe are emerging as key players in the global market.
According to the International Synthetic Rubber Manufacturers Association (IISRP), global rubber consumption reached 20.02 million tons in 2004, with synthetic rubber accounting for 59% and natural rubber making up 41%. In 2003, China's synthetic rubber consumption hit 2.155 million tons, surpassing the U.S. and Japan, and establishing itself as the world’s largest consumer of synthetic rubber.
In 2004, butyl rubber (BR) and styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) together accounted for over 60% of total synthetic rubber consumption. The global production capacity for BR and SBR was 7.2 million tons per year. Major players included Goodyear (10%), Chinese producers and Bayer (8% each), Russian producers (6%), and companies like Dow Chemicals, Michelin, and Kumho Petrochemical (5% each). Other firms collectively held around 31% of the market share.
The International Rubber Research Group (IRSG) reported that global rubber consumption grew to 20.0 million tons in 2004, marking the third consecutive year of growth. However, the growth rate of 3.7% was slightly lower than the previous two years, which saw 5% growth. It is expected that this year’s growth will reach 4.6%, pushing consumption to 20.94 million tons. Next year, it is projected to increase by 4.3%, reaching 21.84 million tons.
Demand in the Asia-Pacific region and the European Union is expected to rebound, while growth in North America, Latin America, and Africa will slow down. Natural rubber production is forecasted to grow by 4.8% this year, but the pace will slow to 1.6% next year. Malaysia is expected to see higher growth in natural rubber production compared to Indonesia and Thailand, while other regions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America will experience slower growth.
Synthetic rubber production is expected to slow down to 3.0% this year and 2.5% next year. Europe’s growth will decline, while the Asia-Pacific region will lead the way in production expansion. According to the IISRP, by 2020, global natural rubber consumption is expected to reach around 10 million tons, with synthetic rubber consumption reaching approximately 16 million tons. China alone is projected to consume more than 2.5 million tons of natural rubber and over 5 million tons of synthetic rubber.
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