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The global rubber industry has undergone significant transformations, marked by mergers, bankruptcies, and reorganizations. In recent years, China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and a sharp rise in rubber consumption have signaled the end of the long-standing "tripolar" dominance of the United States, Japan, and Europe. This shift has given way to a new development pattern, with China emerging as a major player alongside Japan and Europe.
According to data from the International Synthetic Rubber Manufacturers Association (IISRP), global rubber consumption reached 20.02 million tons in 2004, with synthetic rubber accounting for 59% and natural rubber making up 41%. In 2003, China's synthetic rubber consumption hit 2.155 million tons, surpassing both the U.S. (1.942 million tons) and Japan (11.11 million tons), becoming the world's largest consumer of synthetic rubber.
In 2004, butyl rubber (BR) and styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) accounted for over 60% of global synthetic rubber consumption. The total production capacity for BR and SBR worldwide was 7.2 million tons per year. Major players included Goodyear (10%), Chinese producers and Bayer (8% each), Russian producers (6%), and companies like Dow Chemicals, Michelin, and Kumho Petrochemical (5% each). Other firms collectively held 31% of the market share.
Analysis by the International Rubber Research Group (IRSG) showed that global rubber consumption rose to 20.0 million tons in 2004, marking the third consecutive year of growth. However, the growth rate dropped to 3.7%, lower than the previous two years' 5%. It is projected that global rubber consumption will grow by 4.6% this year, reaching 20.94 million tons, and 4.3% next year, hitting 21.84 million tons. Demand in Asia-Pacific and the European Union is expected to rebound, while growth in North America, Latin America, and Africa will slow down.
Natural rubber (NR) production is forecasted to increase by 4.8% this year, slowing to 1.6% next year. Malaysia is expected to see higher growth than Indonesia and Thailand, while other regions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America will experience slower expansion. Synthetic rubber production is also expected to slow, with growth rates dropping to 3.0% this year and 2.5% next year. Europe will see a slowdown, while the Asia-Pacific region will drive production growth.
According to the IISRP, by 2020, global natural rubber consumption is expected to reach around 10 million tons, with synthetic rubber consumption reaching approximately 16 million tons. China is projected to consume more than 2.5 million tons of natural rubber and over 5 million tons of synthetic rubber, reflecting its growing influence in the global rubber market.
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