The real winter of China's machine tool industry has not arrived yet

According to the analysis by the China Machine Tool Industry Association in the first half of the year, the output of gold-cutting machine tools in the first half of the year increased by 23.7% year-on-year (including 40% year-on-year increase in the output of numerically-controlled machine tools). The year-on-year growth rate of output value reached 30.4%, and the product structure seems to be in a good direction. development of.

Assuming that the growth rate of output value is greater than the output growth rate by 6.7 percentage points, and the rate of production of the NC increases substantially, the average unit price of the product has only increased from RMB 169,200/unit in the first half of last year to RMB 169,500/unit in the same period of this year. The year-on-year increase was less than 0.2%.

This reflects that the growth in the output of CNC machine tools is mainly based on economical CNC machine tools, while the production of medium and high-end CNC machine tools and large and heavy machine tools has been reduced.

It is known in the industry that due to the low degree of innovation in China's high-end products and the generally low level of industrialization, profit levels are not high; while low-grade machine tools (including economical CNC machine tools) have lower depreciation due to fixed assets, and the technology is mature. Larger, high production efficiency, and relatively objective profits, but this is not the direction of the development of the machine tool industry, accelerating the industrialization of high-grade gold-cutting machine tools, expanding the market share of medium and high-grade gold-cutting machine tools, is to obtain greater business The fundamental guarantee of profit.

In contrast, changes in the product structure of the forming machine are more reasonable. First, the growth rate of its output value is much higher than the output growth rate. Among them, the average unit price of products has increased from 136,400 yuan per unit in the same period of last year to 216,000 yuan per year this year, and the growth rate has reached 60.3 percent. The sharp rise in the price of a single unit reflects the great changes in the product structure of the forming machine tools and has also yielded considerable profits.

According to the statistics of the association, the profits of China's forming machine tools increased by more than 50% from January to May, and the growth rate of output was 7% year-on-year (including the growth of CNC machine tools by 24.65%). The growth rate of output value reached 40.1%.

Another outstanding phenomenon in the first half of this year was that orders for heavy-duty and large-scale machine tools fell significantly. The reporter learned that in the past, Kunming Machine Tools and Qiqihar Machine Tool Co., Ltd., which once made the industry peers jealous, did not have satisfactory revenue in the first half of the year. According to report, the operating income of Qiqihar No. 2 Machine Tool in the first half of the year was only flat with the same period of last year.

Some companies stated that some orders that have already been completed have already appeared that users are not in a hurry to pick up the goods, and even expressly demand delays in delivery.

It can be foreseen that due to the large number of imported machine tools entering the domestic market, it will have a greater impact on China's development of the CNC machine tool industry. In particular, the import unit prices of some large and heavy-duty machine tools, such as gantry milling, gantry machining centers, milling and boring machines, vertical lathes, and numerical control gear processing machine tools, have decreased, which has caused more severe competition in the market of large-scale and heavy machine tools where market demand has begun to decline.

For the market expectation in the second half of the year, a common view is that as the growth of the major service areas of the machine tool industry, such as autos, slows down, the result will be to slow down the next investment and progress, which will inevitably affect its demand for machine tools.

In addition, because the country has strictly controlled the scale of credit, it is inevitable that some companies will have obvious tight liquidity.

This situation is rather like the feeling in the second half of 2008 and the beginning of 2009. That time, Mr. Lang worked for the Chinese manufacturing industry, said the sentence: currently only autumn, winter yet to come true.

It was only then that the Chinese machine tool manufacturing industry immediately entered hot summer directly from fall. Companies that did not prepare for cold clothing were still fortunate. However, the reporter believes that history cannot be completely duplicated. At present, the U.S. economic growth is once again in crisis. The winter of manufacturing in China may not have arrived yet, but the next step will be the gradual rise of the autumn wind and an increase in coolness.