High prices, insufficient supply, structural imbalances

On December 13, a reporter from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association revealed that despite the rapid growth of China’s natural gas industry, the development of chemical projects utilizing natural gas as a raw material has been experiencing a slowdown. Industry insiders suggest that even during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the outlook for natural gas-based chemical projects remains uncertain. According to Li Junfa, director of the petrochemical division at the Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning, unlike previous plans such as the "85", "95", and "15" initiatives, there is no specific plan for any natural gas chemical project in the 11th Five-Year Plan. Li explained that when the price of natural gas exceeds 0.85 yuan per cubic meter, planning departments typically avoid approving or even consider it impractical to proceed with new chemical projects. This 0.85 yuan threshold is considered a critical red line—once surpassed, profitability becomes extremely challenging for such projects. In reality, many natural gas projects in eastern China are already above this level. For instance, major fertilizer companies like Hebei Cangzhou Dahua Group and Liaoning Panjin Chemical Group are paying as much as 1.10 yuan per cubic meter, while some planned projects are expected to face gas prices as high as 1.20 yuan. Notably, Zhongyuan Dahua Group has seen its gas prices reach 1.28 yuan per cubic meter, further complicating the feasibility of new chemical ventures. Beyond pricing issues, a lack of consistent gas supply also hinders progress. Although 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas were planned for large nitrogen fertilizer enterprises this year, actual supply only reached about 80% of the target. While some plants, like Daqing Fertilizer Plant and Cangzhou Dahua Group, managed to secure nearly full supply, others struggled significantly. The Sichuan Nuclear Power Group, for example, received 97% of its allocated gas, but Yuntianhua and Chuanhua saw their supply rates hover around 80%. Meanwhile, the Liaohe Chemical Fertilizer Plant under Panjin Chemical Group had the lowest supply rate at just 43.9%, severely impacting production and increasing operational costs due to the need to seek alternative sources. Industry experts point out that the underlying issue lies in China's irrational natural gas consumption structure, where a significant portion is used for energy rather than industrial purposes. In Xi’an, for example, out of 480,000 natural gas users, 86% are for residential and heating use, 7% for gas stations, and a mere 2% for industrial applications. This misallocation reduces the overall value of natural gas and limits the potential for expanding the natural gas chemical industry. As a result, the sector continues to face challenges in both cost and supply, making long-term development increasingly difficult.

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