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The fertilizer market, which has been on a steady upward trajectory for over a year, appears to have reached a momentary plateau in the second half of this year. However, this stability is expected to be short-lived, as the industry is set to enter a new phase of restructuring. Industry experts predict that next year will bring a period of significant adjustment, according to the recent "Agricultural Resources Daily" conference on fertilizer and pesticide market conditions held on August 25th and 26th. Attendees, including industry leaders, analysts, and company representatives, discussed the current state and future direction of the sector.
Tang Tiejun, Director of the Price Division at the National Development and Reform Commission, noted that government-guided fertilizer prices will remain unchanged in the second half of the year. However, authorities are actively exploring ways to provide farmer subsidies following price releases. Wang Wenshan, Chairman of the Large and Medium Nitrogen Branch of the Nitrogen and Phosphate Association, emphasized that policy adjustments are inevitable. He stressed that only through structural reform can the industry achieve sustainable development.
Industry observers have pointed out that from the beginning of last year, there has been a surge in new construction and expansion projects in the nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer sectors. According to preliminary data, these projects are expected to come online in the coming years. It is estimated that nitrogen fertilizer production capacity will increase by 3 to 4 million tons next year, with even greater growth anticipated in the phosphate sector.
Pan Derun, Vice President of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, warned against excessive investment in the fertilizer industry. Gu Zongqin, President of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute, echoed this sentiment, stating that while the liberalization of fertilizer pricing is an inevitable trend, companies must carefully plan their strategies.
Experts at the meeting also highlighted that the pesticide industry is undergoing its own structural transformation. Key changes include the gradual replacement of highly toxic and high-residue pesticides, prompting major shifts in product portfolios. Additionally, foreign pesticide companies are increasingly relocating their production to China, leading to a reshaping of the domestic industry.
It’s worth noting that Chinese pesticide firms are now integrating into the global supply chains of multinational corporations. Major international players such as Bayer, Syngenta, and DuPont have established 15 pesticide manufacturing facilities in China, with total investments exceeding $100 million. Initially, these companies aimed to produce and sell locally, but due to lower manufacturing costs and evolving domestic demand, many of their products are now being exported globally. This shift is further intensifying competition and reshaping the industry landscape.
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